Obama to allow Iran to keep its nuclear program?

DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis
March 28, 2009, 11:32 AM (GMT+02:00)

Designated prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu simply pushes away any suggestion of pressure on Israel from the Obama administration in Washington, while Ehud Olmert has said a few days before bowing out that he has left the Iranian nuclear threat to the next government.

Olmert forgot to mention that his government's policy of letting Israel be sidelined on the existential Iranian issue and knuckling under to the US lead and its failed sanctions policy allowed Iran to build up momentum in its race for a nuclear bomb.

Olmert "forgot" to mention that Israel is no longer in a position to stop Iran's nuclear program.
He and foreign minister Tzipi Livni bow out therefore leaving Israel vulnerable as never before to international pressure in all its external policies. Before he takes office, the incoming prime minister is already having his arm twisted by Washington and the European Union on Palestinian statehood – and that is just the beginning because of another development which Olmert "forgot" to mention.

DEBKAfile's Washington sources report that the Obama administration is on the threshold of a major rapprochement with Tehran, a reversal of US policy dramatic enough to block out international sanctions. Iran will be allowed to keep its nuclear program, including military elements and enriched uranium stocks, up to the point of actually assembling a weapon.

Washington will continue the Bush practice of publishing "reports" that Iran is still years away from a weaponizing capability. Tehran will hold the upper hand by retaining the option to go forward and build a bomb within one month of a decision to do so and mount warheads on ballistic missiles already standing ready, as revealed last Sunday, March 25, by Israel's military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin.

Because of the Olmert-Livni policy position in the last two years, Israel no longer as any say in Washington and international forums on the nuclear-arming of Iran.

The outgoing prime minister mentioned that Israel has a long-range operational arm able to strike anywhere. But he forgot that, on his watch, Israel lost the ability to employ it. DEBKA file's Washington sources report that the Obama administration, like its predecessor, will throw everything they have against an Israeli prime minister who ventures to employ its long-range arm. This will not be news to Netanyahu, any more than Olmert.

Just as Ariel Sharon dumped the Iranian problem in Olmert's lap, he too is handing it down to his successor. He not only avoided solving it but left Israel with less leverage than every before for heading off the fast-approaching peril.

Netanyahu is whistling in the dark when he pretends to see no American squeeze on the horizon of his government-in-waiting. One of the hardest long-term tasks ahead of him will be to rebuild Israel's position as America's needed and respected strategic ally, in the face of Barack Obama's ardent courtship of Iran and the Muslim world.

The US president is willing to ditch Israel as a friend. This will be brought home to Jerusalem when he makes his big speech on April 7 appealing for a grand US-Muslim global reconciliation. The US president is preparing to tie a Palestinian-Israeli settlement - on Washington's terms - to such unrelated issues as Afghanistan and Pakistan as the currency for purchasing Muslim and Arab backing for accommodations of these outstanding terrorist fronts.

Different forms of coercion, including the discrediting of the Netanyahu government if it fails to toe the Obama line, will follow. The incoming prime minister's pretense that "all is well" between him and the US administration is pie in the sky, instead of the resolute, firm hand which Israel needs at the helm these days to recoup command over its basic policies and the international community's faded respect.

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Netanyahu to lead national-unity government?

from Hot Air.com

March 24, 2009

Benjamin Netanyahu won a surprising political victory today and may have marginalized his most prominent opponent in the process. The new Prime Minister of Israel got Labor into his coalition in a close but successful vote in the left-wing party. That leaves Kadima and its leader, Tzipi Livni, out in the cold:

Israel’s Labor Party voted Tuesday to join the incoming government of Benjamin Netanyahu, giving a centrist tone to the coalition that has looked hard-line up to now. Party secretary Eitan Cabel announced the results of the voting after a heated debate — 680 in favor and 507 against.

Ofer Eini, head of the Histadrut labor union and a senior Labor Party operative, told Israel’s Army Radio, “I’m happy that party delegates have decided to enter the government.” But others chanted slogans like “Disgrace” after the announcement.

Netanyahu has signed coalition agreements with Yisrael Beitenu and Shas, two parties known for their tough policy lines toward the Palestinians, as is Netanyahu’s own Likud Party. Labor, in contrast, has been in the forefront of Mideast peace efforts.

Labor’s 13 seats in the parliament would give Netanyahu a majority of 66 in the 120-seat house, but there is a possibility that the party could split as a result of the vote, and some members might choose to remain in the opposition.

Netanyahu’s victory leaves Kadima without firm footing in Israel. Ariel Sharon launched Kadima as a way to claim the center from Likud and Labor despite having spent decades building the former and fighting the latter. Livni now leads the party, and had hoped to force Netanyahu out by blocking any majority coalition, making her the next choice to form a government.

Kadima can go into opposition, but how would they position themselves? A Likud-Labor alliance would encompass the political spectrum and leave them little ground to build a coherent opposition. YidwithLid’s sources in Israel say that Kadima has belatedly begun to understand the hole they’ve put themselves in by Livni’s refusal to work with Netanyahu and that they may decide to make it a national-unity government after all.

We’ll see. At this point, though, we know that Netanyahu has clearly outboxed Livni, and her party may need to rethink its leadership.

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