article from Cheat-Seeking Missiles
image from Cheat-Seeking Missiles
by Laer
May 19th 2009
A Rousing Endorsement Of Experts
Europeans must be a happy bunch this morning because a team of Russian and American “experts” have determined that their continent needs no missile shield, and those apocalyptic Iranians and their full-bore nuclear development programs pose no risk to Europeans from Budapest to Bath.
The experts’ first finding, reported by WaPo is that the planned defense won’t be effective against the type of missiles the Iranians are likely to use. The second: It’ll be more than five years before the Iranians would be read to nuke Europe. Two questions: How long will it take to install the missile defense. And why not hire some other experts to use those five years to make the system effective against the kind of missiles the Iranians would use.
The experts then analyzed the Iranians’ crappy missiles, derived from crappy North Korean knock-offs of seriously outdated Russian sub-launched missiles, and conclude it would take six to eight years for the Iranians to get a launchable bomb and put it on a missile capable of hitting a European city. So no missile defense is needed, natch! Especially since the experts don’t think any U.S. system could knock out an Iranian - North Korean - Russian missile dating from the 1950s.
But the entire discussion is moot because of the experts’ final point: that the Iranians won’t nuke Europe anyway because it will ensure their self-destruction. How odd. Saner nations than Iran - the US and Russia - pursued or feared missile defense systems, even though the doctrine of mutually assured destruction was firmly in place between them, so why should the Europeans not have an insurance policy against Iranian lunacy?
I don’t think the Iranians are likely to try to hit Europe with a missile because so many other scenarios make more sense, not the least of which is simply providing a nuclear umbrella for its operatives in the Middle East. But if I were a European, I’d be more comfortable staking my future on a real missile defense than the opinions of experts.
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Tuesday, May 19, 2009
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